August 17, 2009 - It will soon be eight full years since the U.S.-led forces toppled the Taliban in Afghanistan, and while there are a number of divergent opinions about just who's winning the war, everyone agrees that victory will not be secured any time soon.

Since U.S. President Barack Obama declared Afghanistan to be a priority, we have seen a substantial surge in American troops deployed there, and in June a new commander - Lt.-Gen. Stanley McChrystal - was appointed in order to shift the strategic direction. The immediate result of the American reinforcements adopting a more aggressive posture has been a huge spike in NATO casualties. With 75 NATO soldiers killed, July was the bloodiest month in the war to date.

By November 2001 the U.S. and the Northern Alliance Afghan Militia had reduced the Taliban footprint in Afghanistan to a presence in just six of the country's 324 districts. It is now estimated by NATO intelligence that the Taliban exert some degree of authority in at least 160 districts, meaning they have reclaimed roughly half of Afghanistan.

After his first visit to Kandahar, newly appointed NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen ruffled Canadian feathers by questioning our projected troop pullout in December 2011.

"Seen from an alliance point of view, I would strongly regret if that became the final outcome of the Canadian considerations," Mr. Rasmussen told reporters.

At present, the Dutch are due to end their commitment in southern Afghanistan in 2010, and many analysts feel that their pullout may be the removal of a symbolic finger in the dike of the alliance's collective resolve. Other key NATO partners such as Germany have already balked at the U.S. request to support the current surge in troops.

Recognizing the reluctance of the European nations to commit more troops to the war, newly appointed NATO Supreme Military Commander - U.S. navy Admiral James Stavridis - tried his best to put a brave spin on the war.

"I am confident we will win in Afghanistan" he told the Associated Press. "There will be some good days and there will be some bad days, some big challenges." Unfortunately for those anxious to believe these reassuring statements, Stavridis is singing from an old and worn song sheet.

"At the end of the day, the way we will win in Afghanistan will be through training the Afghan Security Forces" he said.

For the record, there are currently 100,000 U.S. and NATO soldiers deployed in Afghanistan, in support of nearly 175,000 Afghan soldiers and police.

Given that NATO possesses the most potent high-tech inventory the world has ever seen, and the estimated 15,000 Taliban fighters are equipped with antiquated and rudimentary weapons, one would have to question whether more firepower and more manpower is really what it will take to tip the scales in our favour.

However, the current plan is to nearly double the size of the Afghan army to a staggering 240,000 troops.

I knew that this number rang a familiar bell, and by happenstance the mid-summer cleanup at our office unearthed a long-lost book entitled Modern Fighting Men. As the title was first published in 1986, it is no longer very modern. However, as it was printed during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, it was interesting to note some of the parallels to the current situation confronting NATO in that same country.

It was noted that the Soviets were generous with the provision of aid and equipment for the Afghan army, which they grew to a total of 250,000 troops. What was most notable was the book's assessment of this fighting force.

"Most Afghans are devout Muslims and, as the revolt has been proclaimed a holy war, their loyalty to the government has remained a matter of speculation.

"In summary, the Afghan Army can only be seen as an untrustworthy organization involved in a struggle against a widespread revolt that it would certainly lose without the support of the Soviet Army."

Even more chilling was the book's depiction of the Afghan mujahedeen. It described them as being poorly equipped and rife with internal dissent between rival guerrilla bands. As a dated reference, the Soviet experience in Afghanistan was likened to the American disaster in Vietnam. The prophetic conclusion, written in 1986, could just as easily be applied to NATO's current Afghanistan venture.

"The strategic stalemate that has developed suggests that the war will be a long one, but as in most such conflicts, the initiative remains with the guerrillas; if they can hang on and continue the struggle they will without a doubt wear down the fighting will of the enemy and bring into question the whole value of the Soviet commitment."

As history shows, that Soviet commitment was curtailed in April 1989, and all that remains to be seen is how long the U.S. and NATO will stay the same course.

An Afghan mujahed fighter was once quoted as saying, "The Russians may have the watches, but we have the time."

Little has changed in the interim.

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