Eroding U.S. industrial base comes with price

The United States of America has historically enjoyed self-sufficiency in times of both war and peace but in order to better assess its present place in the world as concerns its military and economic strength, it is important to reflect on its foundation. There is daily talk from Wall Street to Capitol Hill with respect to spread sheets and global policy, but it perhaps falls short when it comes down to addressing the average U.S. wage earner, and how both will ultimately affect jobs and the country’s national security and defense.

It is important to note, that as our forefathers were fighting for independence from England during the Revolutionary War, seldom do we hear about the underlying and overwhelming task they endured in order to supply an army without an industrial base. In order for success, the Colonies depended upon France and the Netherlands for everything from blankets and clothing to gunpowder, muskets, munitions, and food. Benjamin Franklin bartered a deal with France to ship across the Atlantic Ocean by way of the Netherlands’ St. Eustatius Island, in order for George Washington and his troops to have the means to defend themselves. Perhaps you want quick money, but you once tried stock exchange and lost millions of dollars. Of course, no one won’t be worried to trade again after earning less than what you lost in a previous trade. However, worry no more as 5 pips a day Program can now cover you and make you thousands every day. If you are looking for the best trade selling company here you will get a best option.

In light of the French Revolution at the turn of the 18th century, when the Netherlands were seized by Napoleon and President John Adams came close to war with France, a primary U.S. ally just years earlier, self –sufficiency was the order of the day. In 1791, Alexander Hamilton, the first U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, was asked by President George Washington and the U.S. Congress to officially document U.S. policy on industrial and military self-sufficiency. It read, “Not only have the wealth, but the independence and security of a country, appear to be materially connected with the prosperity of manufactures. Every nation, with a view to those great objects, ought to endeavour to possess within itself all the essentials of national supply. These comprise the means of subsistence, habitation, clothing and defense. The possession of these is necessary to the perfection of the body politic: to the safety as well as to the welfare of the society.”

The Industrial Revolution of the 19th century secured the U.S.policy of self-sufficiency, transforming it into a global power. Due to the strength of its industrialization the U.S. was able to defeat its enemies in World War I. With the advent of the automobile, which Henry Ford learned to mass-produce, weaponry and machinery produced for World War II benefited from the automobile factory. Rupture disks can be used to specifically protect installations against unacceptably high pressures, For the best rupture disc goto our site. Production of Sherman tanks, Army jeeps, airplanes and PT boats evolved from such civilian U.S. factories. And in the 1950’s the industrial base was modernized for the Korean War effort.

The industrial base and manufacturing for the U.S. military were necessarily intertwined. But following the end of the Cold War there has been a deliberate decomposition of U.S. industry, unprecedented in American history. There are a number of factors which have contributed to U.S. dependence on foreign trade, primarily with India and China, which has not only led to millions of U.S. manufacturing and engineering jobs permanently lost, but paints a grim picture for the long term stability of the U.S. military supply line. You can follow Trublutint for more info about manufacturing or auto sector.

The dependence on foreign oil and the subsequent OPEC oil embargo in the 1970’s, the U.S. policy of deregulation of corporations of the 1980’s, the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994, and the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 allowing China to become a member, collectively accelerated U.S. dependence on cheap labor offshore. Thus, dependency and reliance on suppliers from all over the world for military equipment and machinery components and parts, required for their manufacture, leaves the U.S. vulnerable.

The Defense Department runs a program called the Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Materials Shortage (DMSMS) at the Tank Automotive and Armaments Command (TACOM). Its purpose is to identify shortages of parts, processes and materials necessary to procure for military buyers. A problem for military acquisitions has been procuring weapon system metal castings as a direct result of plant closings. The majority of castings now come from China and other third-world countries. Along with the foreign dependence on metal castings manufacture its research and development also followed the foundry industry offshore. At https://cwrresources.com you will get the best processing plant machinery.

DMSMS program managers are aware that there are problems in finding sub-parts and components. Not only have replacement parts started to rapidly diminish, but the chemicals needed in their manufacture have as well. Without specific chemicals certain processes cannot be done. For example, there is only one company left in the U.S. that produces a roller cutter for armored plate or heavy steel which was an indirect consequence of supplying armor kits for U.S. Humvees in the War in Iraq. When the Pentagon learned there was an immediate need at the end of 2004, it called for expediency in their manufacture. Sadly, it took almost a year due to the limited facilities producing such.

Another issue arose when a foreign corporation purchased the only us companies in mexico which produced a chemical used for a common binder which secures windows and aluminum panels in aircraft. The company eventually folded when it could not meet Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards. Now the U.S. must depend on the company’s offshore subsidiaries.

Similarly, the bearing industry which produces ball-bearings, roller-bearings and anti-friction bearings is an endangered U.S. industry, key to the production of military gear and plays a part in homeland security. They are components necessary to produce electric motors for conveyor belts such as in factories, steel mills, in airports, in mining, and with the equipment used to manufacture automobiles. Selecting best manufacturing company will definitely boost profits. You should check how to find best tijuana manufacturing companies. And bearings are critical to the mechanical components of major weapons systems. Losing bearings manufacturing to foreign shores directly impacts the capabilities of weapons manufacturing should there be a change in the geopolitical landscape and a cut-off from U.S. suppliers, whether through war, terrorism, or Mother Nature.

With the military build-up of China over the past decade by benefit of applying commercial technologies to military weaponry and its having become the largest offshore manufacturing base for U.S. corporations, the U.S. continues a delicate balancing act with a Communist nation as its biggest trade partner. With a U.S. trade deficit with China reaching over $200 billion in 2005, multi-national corporations, once U.S. companies operating in the U.S., are now just based in the U.S.

And with a demand by China for foreign direct investment as their incentive to buy U.S. products, companies like Boeing are acquiescing by not only building major portions of airplanes in China, but also creating Research and Development opportunities for Chinese engineers, in order to show its commitment. Intel and Microsoft have also followed suit with major investment in directly hiring engineers in China.

Endless conflicts of interest abound when it comes to foreign dependence in order for the U.S. to maintain its infrastructure, electrical grid, military weaponry and supplies, air travel and homeland security, to name a few. When smaller U.S. specialty industries vital to the industrial base become extinct on our shores, they now appear huge in a world where alliances are tenuous at best. A global economy at the expense of U.S. sovereignty, security and standard of living is something that the Colonists would not have stood for. They would have found another way. Maybe America still has time to do the same.

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Executive Power: War on the Constitution

There are prior and current members of the Bush administration, including Vice President Dick Cheney, who openly argue that if the country is at war, the president should be able to ignore domestic and international law outlawing torture, prohibiting illegal detention, providing due process and jurisdictional restraints on military commissions and limiting domestic spying under alleged commander in chief powers. Such claims are unacceptable. Under Article II, Section 3 of our Constitution, the president has an express and unavoidable duty to faithfully execute the “Laws” and has no power to violate them. As Richard Nixon learned, presidential authorizations to violate the law are, in the words of the House Judiciary Committee, “subversive of constitutional government.”

The radical jurisprudence of adherents to the commander-can-violate-laws theory is not “conservative,” since it necessarily ignores views of the founders and framers and overwhelming recognitions in judicial opinions to the contrary. In particular, it ignores unanimous recognitions by the judiciary that all within the executive branch are bound by the laws of war, and numerous affirmations of a constitutionally based judicial power to apply law in cases before the courts and ultimately to review executive decisions taken in time of war.

Since 1800, Supreme Court opinions have also recognized the power of Congress to limit certain commander in chief powers during actual war. More generally, this power does not apply outside of an actual war, and the United States cannot be at “war” with al-Queda or terrorism as such. Even during actual war, Justice David H. Souter recognized, “the President is not Commander in Chief of the country, only of the military.”

Domestic spying: no authority

Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and President Bush claim that domestic spying in manifest violation of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) is permissible under the commander in chief power and is authorized by Congress in broad language in the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) regarding individuals responsible for the 9/11 attacks. Similar claims were made in a letter to four members of Congress on Dec. 22 by Assistant Attorney General William E. Moschella. The claims are patently false.

With respect to presidential power, Moschella seriously misread the Prize Cases by ignoring the fact that, immediately before the language he quoted, the Supreme Court expressly referred to two early federal statutes that “authorized . . . [and] bound” the president to use armed force, demonstrating another instance of congressional power to regulate portions of the commander in chief power during actual war. Moreover, any “inherent presidential authority” to spy on Americans at home is not an exclusive power and has been clearly limited in the FISA.

Additionally, there is no congressional authorization in the AUMF to engage in domestic spying. First, there is no persuasive evidence that Congress intended to override any provisions of the FISA. Second, the AUMF contains no express or implied authorization concerning surveillance. With respect to executive action, the purpose of the AUMF is clearly contained in the authorization to use merely “necessary and appropriate force” against those “nations, organizations, or persons” that “planned, authorized, committed, or aided” the 9/11 terrorist attacks or that “harbored such . . . persons.” The authorization of appropriate “force” is not an authorization to torture or to use cruel, inhuman, degrading or humiliating treatment against any person; it is not an authorization to create military commissions that are otherwise without jurisdiction and fail to provide due process required by constitutional and international law; and it is certainly not an authorization to spy on individuals in the United States. The word “appropriate” also impliedly requires compliance with law.

Third, whatever authorizations exist in the AUMF to use force, it is evident that they are restricted in two important respects. The first restriction is recognizable in language reflecting past events. The words “planned, authorized, committed, or aided” refer to the past and more specifically to the events of 9/11. The second restriction is more significant. With respect to the people against whom appropriate force can be directed, the authorization is expressly tied to those who “planned, authorized, committed, or aided” the 9/11 attacks as such or who “harbored such . . . persons.” Not covered are those who merely have, in the president’s words, “known links” with al-Queda or, in Moschella’s words, links with “an affiliated terrorist organization.” Also not covered are misguided people who merely sympathize with the 9/11 terrorists, people who pose “a threat of future terrorist attacks” or people who simply communicate with them.

The FISA provides an appropriate national security tool for spying on transnational communications with the 9/11 and other terrorists. The AUMF does not do so and offers no aid for presidents and others who violate laws concerning inhumane treatment of detainees, military commissions and domestic spying.

Jordan Paust is the Mike & Teresa Baker Law Center Professor at the University of Houston and a former captain, U.S. Army judge advocate general’s corps and member of the faculty at the Judge Advocate General’s School (1969-1973).

 

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US Defense Dept report singles out China as potential military rival

WASHINGTON (AFX) – A major review of US military strategy singled out China as the country with the greatest potential to challenge the US militarily.

The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) noted China’s steady but secretive military buildup since 1996.

‘Of the major and emerging powers, China has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the US and field disruptive military technologies that over time offset traditional US military advantages absent US counter strategies,’ the report said.

The pace and scope of China’s military buildup already puts regional military balances at risk, it said.

It listed an array of high end military capabilities that China is investing in.

It said US policy aims at encouraging China to choose a path of peaceful economic growth and political liberalization, rather than military threat or intimidation.

But, it said, ‘The outside world has little knowledge of Chinese motivations and decision-making or of key capabilities supporting its military modernization.’

‘The US encourages China to take actions to make its intentions clear and clarify its military plans.’

jm/lt/jm

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Bush told Blair we’re going to war, memo reveals

Bush told Blair we’re going to war, memo reveals

· PM backed invasion despite illegality warnings
· Plan to disguise US jets as UN planes
· Bush: postwar violence unlikely

Richard Norton-Taylor, Guardian, Thursday February 2, 2006

Tony Blair told President George Bush that he was “solidly” behind US plans to invade Iraq before he sought advice about the invasion’s legality and despite the absence of a second UN resolution, according to a new account of the build-up to the war published today.
A memo of a two-hour meeting between the two leaders at the White House on January 31 2003 – nearly two months before the invasion – reveals that Mr Bush made it clear the US intended to invade whether or not there was a second resolution and even if UN inspectors found no evidence of a banned Iraqi weapons programme.

“The diplomatic strategy had to be arranged around the military planning”, the president told Mr Blair. The prime minister is said to have raised no objection. He is quoted as saying he was “solidly with the president and ready to do whatever it took to disarm Saddam”.

The disclosures come in a new edition of Lawless World, by Phillipe Sands, a QC and professor of international law at University College, London. Professor Sands last year exposed the doubts shared by Foreign Office lawyers about the legality of the invasion in disclosures which eventually forced the prime minister to publish the full legal advice given to him by the attorney general, Lord Goldsmith.

The memo seen by Prof Sands reveals:

· Mr Bush told the Mr Blair that the US was so worried about the failure to find hard evidence against Saddam that it thought of “flying U2 reconnaissance aircraft planes with fighter cover over Iraq, painted in UN colours”. Mr Bush added: “If Saddam fired on them, he would be in breach [of UN resolutions]”.

· Mr Bush even expressed the hope that a defector would be extracted from Iraq and give a “public presentation about Saddam’s WMD”. He is also said to have referred Mr Blair to a “small possibility” that Saddam would be “assassinated”.

· Mr Blair told the US president that a second UN resolution would be an “insurance policy”, providing “international cover, including with the Arabs” if anything went wrong with the military campaign, or if Saddam increased the stakes by burning oil wells, killing children, or fomenting internal divisions within Iraq.

· Mr Bush told the prime minister that he “thought it unlikely that there would be internecine warfare between the different religious and ethnic groups”. Mr Blair did not demur, according to the book.

The revelation that Mr Blair had supported the US president’s plans to go to war with Iraq even in the absence of a second UN resolution contrasts with the assurances the prime minister gave parliament shortly after. On February 23 2003 – three weeks after his trip to Washington – Mr Blair told the Commons that the government was giving “Saddam one further final chance to disarm voluntarily”.

He added: “Even now, today, we are offering Saddam the prospect of voluntary disarmament through the UN. I detest his regime – I hope most people do – but even now, he could save it by complying with the UN’s demand. Even now, we are prepared to go the extra step to achieve disarmament peacefully.”

On March 18, before the crucial vote on the war, he told MPs: “The UN should be the focus both of diplomacy and of action … [and that not to take military action] would do more damage in the long term to the UN than any other single course that we could pursue.”

The meeting between Mr Bush and Mr Blair, attended by six close aides, came at a time of growing concern about the failure of any hard intelligence to back up claims that Saddam was producing weapons of mass destruction in breach of UN disarmament obligations. It took place a few days before the then US secretary Colin Powell made claims – since discredited – in a dramatic presentation at the UN about Iraq’s weapons programme.

Earlier in January 2003, Jack Straw, the foreign secretary, expressed his private concerns about the absence of a smoking gun in a private note to Mr Blair that month, according to the book. He said he hoped that the UN’s chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix, would come up with enough evidence to report a breach by Iraq of is its UN obligations.

The extent of concern in Washington at the time is reflected in the plan to send US planes over Iraq disguised in UN livery – itself a clear breach of international law.

Prof Sands also says that Sir Jeremy Greenstock, Britain’s UN ambassador at the time, told a colleague from another country that he was “clearly uncomfortable” about the failure to get a second resolution.

Foreign Office lawyers consistently warned that an invasion would be regarded as unlawful. The book reveals that Elizabeth Wilmshurst, the FO’s deputy chief legal adviser who resigned over the war, told the Butler inquiry, into the use of intelligence during the run-up to the war, of her belief that Lord Goldsmith, the attorney general, shared the FO view.

Lord Goldsmith told the FO lawyers in early 2003: “The prime minister has told me that I cannot give advice, but you know what my views are”, according to private evidence to the Butler inquiry.

Shortly afterwards, in February 2003, Lord Goldsmith visited Washington where he had talks with William Taft, Mr Powell’s legal adviser. Mr Taft is quoted in the book as as saying Lord Goldsmith also met “our attorney general [then John Ashcroft], and people at the Pentagon”.

On March 7 2003 Lord Goldsmith advised the prime minister that the Bush administration believed that a case could be made for an invasion without a second UN resolution. But he warned that Britain, if it went ahead, could be challenged in the international criminal court. Ten days later, he said a second resolution was not necessary.

Sir Menzies Campbell, Liberal Democrat acting leader, said last night: “The fact that consideration was apparently given to using American military aircraft in UN colours in the hope of provoking Saddam Hussein is a graphic illustration of the rush to war. It would also appear to be the case that the diplomatic efforts in New York after the meeting of January 31 were simply going through the motions, with decision for military action already taken.”

Sir Menzies continued: “The prime minister’s offer of February 23 to Saddam Hussein was about as empty as it could get. He has a lot of explaining to do.”

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Probable Cause for Alarm

Probable Cause for Alarm

Press ignores Ex-NSA chief’s ignorance of Constitution

FAIR, January 27, 2006

When FEMA Director Michael Brown claimed not to be aware of the evacuee crisis at the New Orleans Convention Center following Hurricane Katrina (NPR, 9/1/05), many journalists expressed astonishment that a high-ranking official could be so uninformed about a crucial aspect of his job (e.g., Nightline, 9/1/05). But when Gen. Michael Hayden, principal deputy director of National Intelligence and former director of the National Security Agency, displayed an equally astounding lack of knowledge about a matter just as basic to his job, media as a whole let it pass without comment.

The subject in question was the constitutional protections the American public has against government spying–surely a vital thing to understand for the former head of the nation’s top surveillance agency, and the person currently in charge of “overseeing the day-to-day activities of the national intelligence program,” as his Air Force bio states. Those protections are specified in the Fourth Amendment to the Constitution, which reads in full:

     “The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.”

Surely it’s not too much to ask that the officials who are entrusted with the ability to spy on virtually any electronic communication have an appreciation of how this amendment limits that ability. Yet in a question-and-answer session at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. on January 23–before an audience consisting largely of journalists–Hayden repeatedly demonstrated that he does not know the basic language of this key part of the Bill of Rights.

The subject came up when reporter Jonathan Landay of Knight Ridder attempted to preface a question by stating that “the Fourth Amendment of the Constitution specifies that you must have probable cause to be able to do a search that does not violate an American’s right against unlawful searches and seizures.” Hayden interjected: “Actually, the Fourth Amendment actually protects all of us against unreasonable search and seizure. That’s what it says.”

Landay politely corrected him, saying, “But the measure is ‘probable cause,’ I believe.” But Hayden insisted: “The amendment says ‘unreasonable search and seizure.'” When Landay continued, “But does it not say probable–” he was interrupted by Hayden, who said, “No…. The amendment says ‘unreasonable search and seizure.'”

Landay went on to ask his question, which was whether the NSA, by bypassing the special court mandated by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, had “crafted a detour around the FISA court by creating a new standard of ‘reasonably believe’ in place of ‘probable cause.'” Hayden’s response returned to the issue of the Fourth Amendment:

“I didn’t craft the authorization. I am responding to a lawful order, alright? The attorney general has averred to the lawfulness of the order. Just to be very clear, okay–and, believe me, if there’s any amendment to the Constitution that employees at the National Security Agency is familiar with, it’s the Fourth, alright? And it is a reasonableness standard in the Fourth Amendment. So, what you’ve raised to me–and I’m not a lawyer, and don’t want to become one–but what you’ve raised to me is, in terms of quoting the Fourth Amendment, is an issue of the Constitution. The constitutional standard is ‘reasonable.’ And we believe–I am convinced that we’re lawful because what it is we’re doing is reasonable.”

By showing that he was unaware of the “probable cause” language in the Fourth Amendment, Hayden revealed that his insistence that it was legal for the NSA to conduct warrantless surveillance was not based on even a nodding familiarity with the constitutional issues involved. Given that Hayden’s talk was part of a coordinated Bush administration publicity campaign to stress the legality of such surveillance, his demonstration of ignorance should have been a central point in the subsequent coverage. Instead, most news outlets that covered his speech chose to ignore his exchange with Landay and the knowledge gap it revealed.

The Philadelphia Inquirer, the flagship of the Knight Ridder chain that employs Landay, did publish a transcript of his exchange with Hayden (1/24/06)–though even the Inquirer does not seem to have had a story pointing out the significance of a high-ranking intelligence official not knowing that the Fourth Amendment contains a “probable cause” requirement.

Editor & Publisher, a website that covers journalism issues, carried a story on January 23 with the headline, “Defending Spy Program, General Reveals Shaky Grip on Fourth Amendment.” The story reported that Hayden “appeared to be unfamiliar with the Fourth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution when pressed by a reporter with Knight Ridder’s Washington office–despite his claims that he was actually something of an expert on it.”

On MSNBC’s Countdown (1/24/06), host Keith Olbermann played video of the exchange, followed by a reading of the Fourth Amendment. “It’s hard to tell which is more frightening for those of you in favor of continuing the democracy, the mistake itself, or the general’s insistence that it was not a mistake,” Olbermann commented. “Well, maybe they have a different Constitution over there at the NSA.”

Most outlets, however, ignored Hayden’s inaccurate claims about the Fourth Amendment–even while covering other aspects of his talk. The New York Times (1/24/06) quoted Hayden, from his National Press Club speech, asserting that the NSA is well-versed in what the law allows in terms of spying:

“‘I’m disappointed, I guess, that perhaps the default response for some is to assume the worst,’ General Hayden said. ‘I’m trying to communicate to you that the people who are doing this, OK, go shopping in Glen Burnie and their kids play soccer in Laurel,’ he added, referring to suburbs near NSA headquarters in Maryland. ‘And they know the law,’ he continued. ‘They know American privacy better than the average American, and they’re dedicated to it.'”

The clear evidence from the same speech that the former NSA head does not, in fact, “know the law,” was not included in the story.

The Associated Press (1/24/06) actually quoted from Hayden’s exchange with Landay without pointing out that the constitutional assertion that he was making was patently false:

“Under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, government officials had to prove to a secretive intelligence court that there was ‘probable cause’ to believe that a person was tied to terrorism. Bush’s program allows senior NSA officials to approve surveillance when there was ‘reason to believe’ the call may involve al-Qaeda and its affiliates. Hayden maintained that the work was within the law. ‘The constitutional standard is reasonable…. I am convinced that we are lawful because what it is we are doing is reasonable,’he said at the National Press Club.”

By attributing the phrase “probable cause” to congressional legislation, and then allowing Hayden, without rebuttal, to claim that the Constitution offered a different standard, the AP accomplished nothing except misinforming its readers.

The First Amendment to the Constitution extends special protection to the press because the framers believed that an unfettered press would help to protect the other rights that the Constitution guaranteed. The lackadaisical media response to the revelation that a high-ranking government official doesn’t even understand what those rights are can only make one worry that the framers’ trust was misplaced.

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Rice: Time is now to take Iran before U.N. Security Council

WASHINGTON – Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said today “the time has come” to send Iran before the U.N. Security Council over its disputed nuclear program, but she seemed to acknowledge that U.N. action may not be swift.

Iran warned that it would intensify its nuclear development if referred to the Security Council.

“It has been our belief, and it is that of the Europeans as well and a number of other states, that the time has come for referral” to the United Nations body, Rice said following a meeting with Italian Foreign Minister Gianfranco Fini.

Calling the case for referral “very strong,” Rice said the United States will push for it at a special meeting of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency early next month.

She would not speculate on what action the Security Council might take, or comment on whether the United States would be satisfied with an outcome less punitive than international economic sanctions.

“The Security Council can then take up the matter at a later time, but the referral absolutely has to be made,” Rice said.

On another topic, Rice was guarded about how the United States would proceed if, as expected, the militant and political group Hamas gains a substantial or dominant foothold in Palestinian elections this week.

Rice repeated U.S. policy that Hamas is a terrorist organization, and she said Washington will not change that position. At the same time, she said Hamas poses a “practical problem” for the U.S.-backed Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Hamas has not renounced violence and does not recognize Israel’s right to exist.

“It probably goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway, that it’s hard to have negotiations with a party that you do not recognize its right to exist,” Rice said.

Israel, the U.S. and other nations are trying to come up with an approach to a Palestinian government with a large Hamas component. U.S. officials say they will not deal directly with Hamas members, but they suggest Washington would not shun the entire government.

On Iran, although Rice stressed the strength of international resolve to stop Iran’s march toward possible nuclear weapons, she was reminded that even strong military allies may not share the United States’ preference for harsh repercussions for Tehran.

Fini said he agrees that Iran’s case should go to the Security Council, which could take a range of steps up to broad trade sanctions or an oil embargo. But Fini began remarks on Iran by noting that Italy is Iran’s largest European trading partner, a reminder that economic measures against the oil exporter would have consequences far beyond Iran.

“The Security Council will evaluate the issue, we hope, with flexibility and with political farsightedness,” Fini said.

European nations that have been negotiating with Iran began drafting a referral resolution that stops short of asking the Security Council to impose sanctions. The draft resolution asks the body to press Tehran to reinstate a freeze on uranium enrichment and to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency investigation of suspect nuclear activities.

Iran claims its nuclear program is entirely devoted to developing the technology needed to make nuclear energy. The United States claims Iran is hiding a weapons program, or ambitions for one, and that its past deceptions warrant review by the Security Council.

Ending a 15-month hiatus during negotiations with European countries over a way to ensure Iran cannot make a bomb, Tehran removed IAEA seals from nuclear equipment Jan. 10 and announced it would restart experiments.

Israel’s defense minister implied over the weekend that if diplomacy fails with Iran, Israel could resort to military action to defend itself from a nation whose leader, hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has said the Jewish state should be wiped off the map.

European diplomats have reacted with alarm. Fini called Ahmadinejad’s statements unacceptable but added: “Being equally firm, we want to stress and reiterate to our Israeli friends that the only way to guarantee peace and security is the diplomatic route.”

Rice said that while President Bush always reserves the right to use force, U.S. military action against Iran “is not on the agenda because we have committed to the diplomatic course.”

Copyright © 2006 The Seattle Times Company

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Bush’s Iran Options Limited by Iraq, Perils of War

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) — “Grave threat” is how U.S. President George W. Bush described Iraq three years ago. Today he uses that same phrase — to characterize Iran.

The resemblance between these two standoffs ends with the rhetoric, analysts say. Iran and its nuclear program today are far more dangerous than Iraq’s was, and U.S. options are far more limited.

As a result, the Bush administration is pursuing a markedly different approach than it did in 2003, when its diplomacy was aimed at lining up allies for a war. This time, U.S. diplomats are seeking an international consensus on how to proceed.

“This administration is forced to follow this route because of the failures of Iraq,” says Joseph Cirincione, director for nonproliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based policy-study group.

Cirincione says there “was a lot of talk” among supporters of the Iraq war in the spring of 2003 about “moving on to Tehran” after the U.S. overthrew Saddam Hussein. Now, because of the “bloody quagmire” in Iraq, “we have no really tough option with Iran, certainly none that could be implemented unilaterally,” he says.

Military Obstacles

With 140,000 troops tied down in Iraq, the U.S. military can’t support another invasion and occupation, analysts say. Moreover, Iran’s nuclear sites are dispersed throughout the country and deeply buried, and pinpoint military strikes would inflame anti-Americanism in the Middle East while only delaying, not eradicating, the program.

Because of Iran’s size, a ground invasion may require twice as many troops as in Iraq, says Richard Russell, a Middle East specialist at the National Defense University in Washington. While an air campaign could take out Iran’s air defenses, it could also trigger retaliatory Iranian missile strikes on Israel or U.S. troops in the region, terrorism and oil disruptions, experts say.

And that retaliation, said retired Marine Corps General Anthony Zinni, “would require us to counterattack and escalate.”

“When do we get to the point when we put boots on the ground? That would make Iraq look like a cakewalk for sure,” Zinni, the former commander-in-chief of the U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for U.S. security interests in the Persian Gulf, said in a telephone interview today.

Zinni estimated that a ground invasion of Iran would require “500,000 troops or more.”

Missiles, 900,000 Troops

Iran, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, is ringed by mountains, is roughly four times the size of Iraq and has almost three times its population. Its military numbers almost 900,000 soldiers and reservists and has long-range missiles that can reach Israel.

Iran dominates the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which at least 35 percent of the world’s oil is shipped, and could threaten that commerce with its anti-ship cruise missiles, U.S. military officials say.

Despite such obstacles, some of the same people who pushed most forcefully for action against Iraq are warning today that the administration must ready a similar option for Iran. The editor of the Weekly Standard magazine, William Kristol, wrote last week that the U.S., while pursuing diplomacy, should “prepare for various forms of military action.”

Air-Strike Targets

Michael Eisenstadt, a reserve army officer and a Persian Gulf military specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says U.S. planners have undoubtedly begun to think seriously about possible targets for air strikes, especially since the election last year of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran’s president.

Before then, says Eisenstadt, the military option was “really off the table.” Now he says, “the calculus has changed.” At the same time, Eisenstadt says that no one in Washington is considering a ground invasion, and that the likely Iranian response to air strikes would be terrorism.

Bush cited the need for diplomacy and global consensus at a news conference in Washington on Dec. 19. “Of course we want this to be solved diplomatically, and we want the Iranians to hear a unified voice,” he said. “I know this: People know that an Iran with the capacity to manufacture a nuclear weapon is not in the world’s interest. That’s universally accepted.”

Credibility Problems

Bush acknowledged that America’s faulty prewar intelligence on Iraq has undermined its credibility. “People will say, if we’re trying to make the case on Iran, well, the intelligence failed in Iraq, therefore, how can we trust the intelligence on Iran?” he said.

The U.S. found little evidence of weapons of mass destruction after the Iraq war, including the equipment and materials used to make nuclear weapons. Investigators concluded the nuclear program was largely dormant after the 1991 Gulf war.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice heads to Europe later this week for talks ahead of a Feb. 2 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency. At that session, the U.S., U.K., Germany and France will seek a resolution referring the Iran issue to the United Nations Security Council for possible imposition of economic sanctions.

L. Paul Bremer, the former U.S. diplomat who was administrator of Iraq after the invasion, said the Iran situation presents a fresh test for the UN. “Whether the Security Council will be able this time to do more than simply pass resolutions that are ignored by the Iranians remains to be seen,” he said in an interview Jan. 20.

Critics Unassuaged

Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. “Our nation doesn’t need nuclear weapons,” Ahmadinejad said in a televised press conference in Tehran Jan. 14. “You can use nuclear technology in several ways, and we want to do so peacefully.”

Such assurances don’t assuage Iran’s critics. A report last month by the Washington-based Heritage Foundation, which generally supports the Bush administration, said Iran “remains determined to develop a full nuclear fuel cycle that would eventually give it a nuclear weapons capability.” The report said that the ascension of Ahmadinejad, “who has publicly criticized past Iranian concessions, has further undermined the prospects for diplomatic success.”

How Long?

Estimates vary on how long it would take for Iran to develop a functional nuclear weapon. U.S. officials have predicted it may take five years, while Israeli officials say it will happen within one — depending in part on whether sanctions are imposed on Iran and whether they have an impact on its nuclear program.

In 2003, U.S. allies resisted the Bush administration’s push for war against Iraq. Now, there is agreement that Iran must be pressured to halt its nuclear research. Mohamed ElBaradei, the IAEA chief who publicly expressed doubts about U.S. prewar claims on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, has said that Iran’s “full transparency is indispensable and overdue.”

Israel, which Ahmadinejad has threatened to “wipe of the map,” supports taking the diplomatic route. Giora Eiland, Israel’s national security adviser, and Gidon Frank, head of its Nuclear Energy Commission, traveled to Russia on Jan. 17 to brief officials there on Israel’s latest assessment of Iran’s nuclear research efforts, a source familiar with the trip said.

Iran has tried to avoid a referral to the Security Council by warning Jan. 19 of a world oil crisis if sanctions are imposed because of its nuclear program. A majority vote by the 35-member board of the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, is required for referral to the Security Council.

Russia, China

Russia and China, which as permanent members of the Security Council can veto any resolution, have commercial interests in Iran. Russia would like to put off a referral at least until March, European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said last week. While Chinese envoy Wang Guangya, hasn’t threatened to oppose Security Council referral, has cautioned against taking any step that might end negotiations.

Solana said it may not be clear what action the IAEA will take at the Feb. 2 emergency meeting until the last minute. “Probably on the second of February, I will not be able to answer in the morning,” he said. “I’ll have to probably answer at night.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Janine Zacharia in Washington at jzacharia@bloomberg.net Ken Fireman at Kfireman1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: January 23, 2006 12:05 EST

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The west has picked a fight with Iran that it cannot win

Never pick a fight you know you cannot win. Or so I was told. Pick an argument if you must, but not a fight. Nothing I have read or heard in recent weeks suggests that fighting Iran over its nuclear enrichment programme makes any sense at all. The very talk of it – macho phrases about “all options open” – suggests an international community so crazed with video game enforcement as to have lost the power of coherent thought.

Iran is a serious country, not another two-bit post-imperial rogue waiting to be slapped about the head by a white man. It is the fourth largest oil producer in the world. Its population is heading towards 80 million by 2010. Its capital, Tehran, is a mighty metropolis half as big again as London. Its culture is ancient and its political life is, to put it mildly, fluid.

All the following statements about Iran are true. There are powerful Iranians who want to build a nuclear bomb. There are powerful ones who do not. There are people in Iran who would like Israel to disappear. There are people who would not. There are people who would like Islamist rule. There are people who would not. There are people who long for some idiot western politician to declare war on them. There are people appalled at the prospect. The only question for western strategists is which of these people they want to help.

Of all the treaties passed in my lifetime the 1968 nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) always seemed the most implausible. It was an insiders’ club that any outsider could defy with a modicum of guile. So it has proved. America, sitting armed to the teeth across Korea’s demilitarised zone, has let North Korea become a nuclear power despite a 1994 promise that it would not. America supported Israel in going nuclear. Britain and America did not balk at India doing so, nor Pakistan when it not only built a bomb but deceitfully disseminated its technology in defiance of sanctions. Three flagrant dissenters from the NPT are thus regarded by America as friends.

I would sleep happier if there were no Iranian bomb but a swamp of hypocrisy separates me from overly protesting it. Iran is a proud country that sits between nuclear Pakistan and India to its east, a nuclear Russia to its north and a nuclear Israel to its west. Adjacent Afghanistan and Iraq are occupied at will by a nuclear America, which backed Saddam Hussein in his 1980 invasion of Iran. How can we say such a country has “no right” to nuclear defence?

None the less this month’s reopening of the Natanz nuclear enrichment plant and two others, though purportedly for peaceful uses, was a clear act of defiance by Iran’s new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Inspectors from the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) remain unsure whether it implies a secret weapons programme but the evidence for this is far stronger than, for instance, against Saddam Hussein. To have infuriated the IAEA’s Mohamed ElBaradei takes some doing. As Saddam found, deviousness in nuclear matters is bound to arouse suspicion. Either way, the reopening yielded a strong diplomatic coalition of Europe, America, Russia and China in pleading with Ahmadinejad to desist.

On Monday, Washington’s kneejerk belligerence put this coalition under immediate strain. In two weeks the IAEA must decide whether to report Iran to the UN security council for possible sanctions. There seems little point in doing this if China and Russia vetoes it or if there is no plan B for what to do if such pressure fails to halt enrichment, which seems certain. A clear sign of western floundering are speeches and editorials concluding that Iran “should not take international concern lightly”, the west should “be on its guard” and everyone “should think carefully”. It means nobody has a clue.

I cannot see how all this confrontation will stop Iran doing whatever it likes with its nuclear enrichment, which is reportedly years away from producing weapons-grade material. The bombing of carefully dispersed and buried sites might delay deployment. But given the inaccuracy of American bombers, the death and destruction caused to Iran’s cities would be a gift to anti-western extremists and have every world terrorist reporting for duty.

Nor would the “coward’s war” of economic sanctions be any more effective. Refusing to play against Iranian footballers (hated by the clerics), boycotting artists, ostracising academics, embargoing commerce, freezing foreign bank accounts – so-called smart sanctions – are as counterproductive as could be imagined. Such feelgood gestures drive the enemies of an embattled regime into silence, poverty or exile. As Timothy Garton Ash wrote in these pages after a recent visit, western aggression “would drain overnight its still large reservoir of anti-regime, mildly pro-western sentiment”.

By all accounts Ahmadinejad is not secure. He is subject to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His foe, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, retains some power. Tehran is not a Saddamist dictatorship or a Taliban autocracy. It is a shambolic oligarchy with bureaucrats and technocrats jostling for power with clerics. Despite a quarter century of effort, the latter have not created a truly fundamentalist islamic state. Iran is a classic candidate for the politics of subtle engagement.

This means strengthening every argument in the hands of those Iranians who do not want nuclear weapons or Israel eliminated, who crave a secular state and good relations with the west. No such argument embraces name-calling, sabre-rattling, sanctions or bombs.

At this very moment, US officials in Baghdad are on their knees begging Iran-backed Shia politicians and militias to help them get out of Iraq. From Basra to the suburbs of Baghdad, Iranian influence is dominant. Iranian posters adorned last month’s elections. Whatever Bush and Blair thought they were doing by invading Iraq, they must have known the chief beneficiary from toppling the Sunni ascendancy would be Shia Iran. They cannot now deny the logic of their own policy. Democracy itself is putting half Iraq in thrall to its powerful neighbour.

Iran is the regional superstate. If ever there were a realpolitik demanding to be “hugged close” it is this one, however distasteful its leader and his centrifuges. If you cannot stop a man buying a gun, the next best bet is to make him your friend, not your enemy.

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US Torture Undermines Global Rights Drive: Report

A human rights group said on Wednesday that torture and other abuses committed by the United States in its war on terrorism have damaged American credibility and hurt the global human rights cause.

In a survey of world conditions, U.S.-based Human Rights Watch said Washington should appoint a special prosecutor and Congress should set up an independent panel to investigate U.S. abuses. The annual report covered rights developments in more than 70 countries.

“The U.S. government’s use and defense of torture and inhumane treatment played the largest role in undermining Washington’s ability to promote human rights,” said Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch.

President George W. Bush’s administration has come under heavy criticism from rights groups at home and abroad, and from many foreign governments, over how it has handled the interrogation and detention of suspects in the war on terrorism Washington launched after the September 11 attacks.

The 532-page report said efforts by U.S. officials in 2005 to defend inhumane interrogation methods or seek exemptions from planned anti-torture legislation showed the “U.S. government’s embrace of torture and inhumane treatment began at the top.”

“Fighting terrorism is central to the human rights cause,” Roth said in an introductory essay. “But using illegal tactics against alleged terrorists is both wrong and counterproductive.”

Human Rights Watch said the United States faced accusations of hypocrisy as it tackled 2005 troubles such as the massacre of hundreds of demonstrators in Uzbekistan, ethnic cleansing in Darfur, Sudan and severe repression in countries such as Myanmar, North Korea, Turkmenistan, China and Zimbabwe.

“Even when the administration spoke out in defense of human rights or acted commendably, its initiatives made less headway as a result of the credibility gap,” the report said.

It said the credibility gap was reflected in muted U.S. criticism of abuses in Egypt, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

A ‘GLOBAL LEADERSHIP VOID’

But the group was also critical of some Western U.S. allies.

Human Rights Watch also criticized Britain for trying to send terrorism suspects to countries where they faced torture and said Canada had tried to dilute a new treaty outlawing enforced disappearances.

Those practices by U.S. allies — combined with the European Union’s practice of subordinating human rights to trade in its relationships with many rights offenders — left a “global leadership void” in defending human rights.

“Sadly, Russia and China were all too happy to fill that void by building economic, political, and military alliances without regard to the human rights practices of their partners.” the report said.

Russia, trying to counter democratic currents in former Soviet states, and China, seeking resources for its economy, bolstered abusive governments, creating pressure for other powers to do the same or risk losing influence, it said.

The 16th annual world report by Human Rights Watch, published at http://hrw.org/wr2k6, said increased international pressure on Myanmar and North Korea were among several “bright spots” in 2005.

The group lauded India for freezing military aid to Nepal after a royal coup there in February and credited Kyrgyzstan for rescuing more than 400 refugees from a massacre in its Central Asian neighbor, Uzbekistan.

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Sharon wanted West Bank plan

PRIME Minister Ariel Sharon was prepared to consider withdrawing from as much as 92 per cent of the West Bank, according to a leading Israeli journalist.

In an article published this week in The New Yorker magazine, Ari Shavit writes that Mr Sharon, who instigated the disengagement of Israeli settlements from Gaza last year, had asked his National Security Council to study four alternatives for the West Bank.

The options included withdrawing from 88 or 92 per cent of the territory, evacuating isolated settlements or evacuating a specific settlement region.

This is the first indication of the extent to which the now ailing leader had been prepared to pull back on the West Bank. He had given no public hint of readiness to vacate more than 40per cent of the territory captured in the 1967 Six Day War, although it was clear that in negotiations he would be prepared to go higher.

The 92 per cent figure is probably higher than most observers believed likely. It is not much lower than the amount former Labour prime minister Ehud Barak had offered Yasser Arafat in 2000, a figure variously given as 95 per cent or more.

Surrendering 92 per cent would still permit Israel to retain its major settlement blocs. The Palestinians demand a total withdrawal to the pre-Six Day War border or an equivalent land exchange. In the Gaza Strip, Mr Sharon had ordered total withdrawal.

Shavit, a reporter for Israel’s Haaretz newspaper with high-ranking sources, writes that Mr Sharon had been contemplating an interim agreement with the Palestinians involving the evacuation of about 20 isolated West Bank settlements.

Such a move would almost certainly spark a reprise of the clashes experienced during the Gaza Strip withdrawal last year between settlers and their supporters on one side against the Israeli army and police.

According to Shavit’s sources, Mr Sharon had come to terms with the creation of a Palestinian state but insisted that it be demilitarised and that it not control Israel’s water sources in the hills of the West Bank.

Despite the withdrawal alternatives he outlined to the National Security Council, Mr Sharon had not revealed even to associates where he saw the border being drawn. The associates told Shavit that by the end of the decade, Israel may have pulled back almost to the line delineated by the barrier presently being built parallel to, or on, the pre-1967 border.

Mr Sharon’s associates said he saw West Bank pullbacks leading to a diplomatic process with the Palestinians, although not necessarily to a permanent agreement.

The 77-year-old Prime Minister opened his eyes last night for the first time since his massive stroke on January 4, but aides said it was an involuntary action that did not mean his coma had ended. “It’s a reflex action,” one aide said. “You can tell that the pupils don’t follow anything.”

A senior physician not directly involved in the case said that if Mr Sharon did not show signs of consciousness by next week he could be defined as being in a vegetative state.

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